Main Metrics Comparison — 4-Target Portfolio

Workspace-level side-by-side comparison of all four M&A targets. Sourced from each target's docs/ and specs/ files. Numbers are per-target base-case mid unless otherwise noted. All currencies EUR primary, CZK at 1:25. Last refreshed 2026-04-09 (afternoon) — Amateri revised upward after Tier-1 verification from filed sbírka listin.

1. At-a-glance ranking (REVISED)

Combined portfolio mid valuation: ~€48.2M (≈1.20B CZK) at fair-value (up from €46.8M); roll-up range €30.0M – €73.3M.

Key change: Amateri moves up from rank 3 to rank 2 on verified FY2021–FY2024 accounts (€596k FY2024 net profit, +192% YoY) pulled directly from sbírka listin on 2026-04-09. Valuation range raised +78% at mid. See docs/financial-verification.md for the Tier-1 evidence.

2. Entity & legal

3. Product & market focus

4. Traffic (Nov 2025 – Mar 2026)

Traffic trend comparison

Trend intensity (Nov 2025 MoM, where measurable):
  Amateri     ████████████████████  −17.5%  (sharp decline)
  JOYclub     █████████             −7.4%   (mild decline)
  SDC         ████████ (estimated)  −3 to −5% (shallow)
  SpicyMatch  ???                   unmeasurable

The Nov 2025 cohort signal is sector-wide dating softness, but intensity varies 4x across targets. Amateri's collapse is company-specific (filing gap + mobile-web friction + SMS sunset), JOYclub's shallow decline is pure sector drift, SDC is cushioned by walled-garden stickiness.

5. Financial scale (UPDATED — Amateri Tier-1 verified)

Confidence gradient now real. Amateri has been upgraded from modeled to filed-verified. JOYclub remains press-cited pending Bundesanzeiger pull. SDC and SpicyMatch remain on third-party estimates / pure traffic modeling. See docs/financial-verification.md for full audit trail.

JOYclub still ~14× Amateri's revenue scale; SDC ~5×. JOYclub+SDC+Amateri = 96% of portfolio revenue. Amateri's revenue per FTE (€380k verified) is best-in-class for a CZ bootstrap — only SDC's walled-garden model beats it, and SDC's figure is estimated.

6. Valuation triangulation

Implied EV multiples (on base-case revenue)

JOYclub trades at the cheapest multiples despite having the strongest fundamentals — this reflects (a) compressed niche-adult sector multiples, (b) the walled-garden discount for low visible growth, and (c) the sheer scale making higher multiples expensive. JOYclub is the portfolio's best risk-adjusted value.

7. 7-dimension weighted scoring

JOYclub wins on every single dimension except Strategic Fit (where Amateri/SpicyMatch/SDC match it on roll-up potential). JOYclub + SDC both cleanly clear the 3.0 Conditional-Buy threshold; Amateri + SpicyMatch both sit just under (raw) and rebalance to Conditional-Buy only under a specific compliant-acquirer thesis.

8. Long-term decline curves (base case, no intervention)

9. Risk profile summary

10. Strategic role in a roll-up

11. Closing priority order

1. JOYclub first — open LOI; 4-week target to term sheet; primary diligence allocation.
2. Amateri second 🔥 — move fast. Verified filings in hand; three independent pre-sale signals (Jan 2026 bulk filing + NZ 394/2023 + €1.56M shareholder loan) suggest active process with possible competing bidders. Open LOI within 2 weeks; condition on shareholder-loan clearance + H1 2025 run-rate confirmation.
3. SDC in parallel — open LOI; condition the Ronald Stevens transition plan first; diligence travel vertical carve-out; resolve SDC Media LLC entity question first.
4. SpicyMatch last — indicative-only until Cyprus Registrar + UBO verification clear; may never close.

Portfolio cash deployment (recommended openers — REVISED)

JOYclub       €20.0M  ██████████████████████████████████████████  58%
SDC           €10.0M  ████████████████████                        29%
Amateri        €2.2M  █████                                        6% (↑ from 4%)
SpicyMatch     €2.2M  █████                                        6%
                             ─────────
                               €34.4M total opener allocation

At walk-away ceilings, total outlay €56.3M. At mid fair-value, total outlay €48.2M.

Closing-timeline priority rationale

The re-ranking of Amateri from #3 → #2 reflects three factors:

1. Verified filings in hand: the only target besides JOYclub where we have real FY2024 numbers
2. Pre-sale urgency: three independent signals of an active sale process suggest the window is closing
3. Capital efficiency: €2.2M opener captures a €3.2M fair-value asset with the best verification-to-price ratio in the workspace

12. Portfolio thesis

The four targets form a complementary CEE+DACH+US+pan-EU roll-up rather than a set of redundant properties. Each adds a distinct capability:

• JOYclub brings scale, community content, German-speaking market dominance, and the cleanest legal vehicle
• SDC brings a 27-year US brand, walled-garden premium pricing, travel-vertical revenue diversification, and regulatory optionality
• Amateri brings the CZ/SK/HR anchor + a multi-processor / crypto payment stack that no peer can match
• SpicyMatch brings 19 language skins and European-geographic optionality at a floor price

Combined roll-up creates a company with:

• ~€35–50M TTM revenue across 4 operating brands
• ~€10–13M combined EBITDA
• ~8–10M registered members across geographies
• Multi-country compliance surface with best-of-breed pieces (TÜV from JOYclub, multi-processor from Amateri, travel vertical from SDC, language breadth from SpicyMatch)

Implied combined valuation mid €46.8M → ~4.7x EBITDA → meaningful roll-up discount to mainstream dating multiples, creating IRR headroom from integration synergies alone.

Sources

Compiled from the four target files:

• targets/joyclub/ — company profile, financial data, deep analysis, valuation, traffic timeline
• targets/sdc/ — company profile, financial data, deep analysis, valuation, traffic timeline
• targets/amateri/ — company profile, financial data, deep analysis, valuation, traffic timeline
• targets/spicymatch/ — company profile, financial data, deep analysis, valuation, traffic timeline
• Cross-referenced workspace files: docs/market-landscape.md, docs/competitor-matrix.md, rules/valuation-methodology.md, specs/evaluation-criteria.md