Analysis Rules

Analysis Rules

Principles

  1. Evidence over opinion — Every claim must reference a data source or be marked as assumption
  2. Conservative estimates — Use bear-case numbers for financial projections; upside is bonus
  3. Comparable validation — Every metric should be benchmarked against 3+ similar companies
  4. Independent verification — Don't trust seller-provided data without cross-referencing
  5. Time-bound decisions — Set deadlines for each phase; analysis paralysis kills deals

Document Standards

Findings

  • Mark confidence level: Verified / Estimated / Assumed
  • Cite data source for every number
  • Flag contradictions between sources

Scoring

  • Use the 1-5 scale from specs/evaluation-criteria.md
  • Score only after evidence is gathered, never before
  • Document the reasoning behind each score

Recommendations

  • Always present as: Recommendation + Top 3 reasons + Key risk
  • Include dissenting view if team members disagree
  • State what would change the recommendation

File Naming Conventions

docs/           → descriptive-name.md  (research and findings)
specs/          → descriptive-name.md  (requirements and criteria)
plans/          → descriptive-name.md  (action plans and timelines)
rules/          → descriptive-name.md  (frameworks and governance)
targets/<name>/ → same substructure, scoped to one target

Red Flag Triggers (stop and escalate)

  • Seller refuses independent financial verification
  • Unaudited revenue > 3 years old
  • Ownership structure has unexplained gaps
  • Single point of failure: one payment processor / one traffic source > 70%
  • Legal/compliance issues with no disclosed mitigation plan
  • Sector-specific red flags → see rules/swingers-market-notes.md