Valuation Methodology
Use at least two independent methods per target and triangulate. Always present Low / Mid / High.
1. Revenue / EBITDA Multiples
Adult-dating / marketplace comparables (2023-2025 data):
| Segment | EV/Revenue | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|
| Mainstream dating (Match, Bumble) | 2-5x | 8-15x |
| Niche/adult marketplaces | 1-3x | 4-8x |
| Content platforms (OnlyFans-style) | 2-4x | 5-10x |
Discount niche/adult vs mainstream by 30-50% for payment-processor and reputational risk.
2. DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
- 5-year projection, terminal value at year 5
- WACC: 12-18% (high range reflects sector risk)
- Terminal growth: 2-3%
- Sensitivity table on churn, ARPU, CAC
3. SaaS / Marketplace Metrics
- Rule of 40: growth % + EBITDA margin % ≥ 40 → healthy
- LTV:CAC ≥ 3:1 required for quality score
- Payback period < 18 months
- Net revenue retention > 100% = compounding base
4. Asset-Based Floor
For any target, compute replacement cost of:
- User base (CAC × active users)
- Content library (if UGC — estimate licensing cost)
- Brand / domain value
- Tech stack replication cost
Use as the absolute floor price.
Required Deliverable
Every target's targets/<name>/specs/valuation.md must contain:
- Method 1 output (multiples)
- Method 2 output (DCF)
- Method 3 output (asset floor)
- Triangulated range: Low / Mid / High in EUR and CZK
- Recommended offer and walk-away price