Financial Data — Amateri (ScrumWorks s.r.o., IČO 26111161)
Phase 0 research. Every number tagged. Corporate filings are partially available (2011–2020) but no accounts filed for 2021–2024, so all recent figures are modeled from traffic × conversion × ARPU rather than verified accounts. Bear-case bias per
rules/analysis-rules.md.
⚠ Filing status — critical gap
| Year | Účetní závěrka filed? | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | ✅ Yes | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2015 | ✅ Yes (Balance sheet + VZZ) | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2016 | ✅ Yes | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2017 | ✅ Yes | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2018 | ✅ Yes | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2019 | ✅ Yes | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2020 | ✅ Yes (Rozvaha + Příloha) | Sbírka listin (Verified) |
| 2021 | ❌ Missing | — |
| 2022 | ❌ Missing | — |
| 2023 | ❌ Missing (only notarial deed NZ 394/2023, 22.12.2023 — unknown content) | — |
| 2024 | ❌ Missing (deadline 30.6.2025 passed) | — |
Material deficiency. CZ § 21a zákona č. 563/1991 Sb. (about accounting) requires an s.r.o. to file annual accounts with the collection of documents. Penalty for non-filing: up to 3% of assets + possible removal of executive officer. The 5-year gap is either (a) deliberate concealment ahead of a sale, (b) operational negligence while the business runs "dark", or (c) the business has shrunk below audit thresholds and filings are delayed but pending. Must be resolved before any LOI.
Reported detail.cz figures — ⚠ DISREGARD
The Czech business directory detail.cz displays the following table for IČO 26111161 labeled "Tržby" and "EBITDA":
| Year | Revenue (tis. Kč) | EBITDA (tis. Kč) | Net profit (tis. Kč) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2,477,326 | 371,137 | 137,379 |
| 2015 | 2,625,602 | 284,018 | 136,746 |
| 2016 | 2,581,151 | 222,125 | 236,195 |
| 2017 | 2,647,528 | 220,225 | 74,403 |
| 2018 | 2,575,599 | 186,504 | 34,302 |
These imply ~€100M annual revenue. They are labeled sample/placeholder data — detail.cz explicitly shows the disclaimer "Nejedná se o výsledky ScrumWorks s.r.o., ale pouze o ukázku dat" (these are not ScrumWorks's results, only sample data). Do not cite. A company with 3–10 employees cannot produce €100M revenue.
Revenue model (Estimated, bear-biased)
Derived from verified traffic × modeled conversion × verified pricing. Cross-checked against CZ niche-adult comparables.
Inputs
| Input | Value | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly visits (Nov 2025) | 1.58M (−17.5% MoM) | SEMrush | Verified |
| Monthly unique visitors | 124k | SimilarWeb | Verified |
| Realistic MAU (blended) | 150k (bear) / 220k (base) / 300k (bull) | derived | Estimated |
| Paying-user conversion | 1.5% / 2.5% / 4.0% | CZ niche-adult comparables | Assumed |
| VIP tier | 99 CZK / 7 days | amateri.com / recenzer.cz | Verified |
| Blended ARPU / month | €7 (bear) / €10 (base) / €13 (bull) | weekly SMS churn skews low | Estimated |
Output (triangulation)
| Scenario | MAU | Paying | ARPU | Annual Revenue | In CZK (×25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 150k | 2,250 | €7 | €189k | 4.7M CZK |
| Base | 220k | 5,500 | €10 | €660k | 16.5M CZK |
| Bull | 300k | 12,000 | €13 | €1.87M | 46.8M CZK |
Headline TTM revenue band: €0.2M – €0.7M – €1.9M
Sanity check vs self-reporting
- Company self-reports "top 10% of Czech companies by turnover" (podnikatel.cz paraphrase) — top 10% threshold is roughly 30–60M CZK (€1.2M–€2.4M). This is consistent with the upper half of the base-to-bull band, not the bear.
- Trend is negative: SEMrush Nov 2025 traffic −17.5% MoM → implies declining revenue into 2026. Adopt flat-to-declining projection for DCF.
- Most plausible point estimate: €0.7–1.0M TTM revenue, flat-to-declining. Carry €1.0M base forward.
Profitability (Estimated)
- Gross margin: 85–90% (digital product, minimal COGS). Assumed
- EBITDA margin: 25–40% (bootstrapped, 3-5 staff, low marketing spend since brand is established). Estimated
- EBITDA band: €50k (bear) / €300k (base) / €750k (bull). Estimated
- Net margin: Lower — Czech 19% corporate tax + historical pattern of declining profit (detail.cz-linked trend direction alone is usable: profit fell 137k → 34k in the 2014–2018 span even on placeholder data, suggesting margin compression was real). Assumed
Unit economics (Assumed)
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAU | 150k | 220k | 300k |
| Paying (concurrent) | 2.25k | 5.5k | 12k |
| ARPU/month | €7 | €10 | €13 |
| CAC (niche adult, SEO-dominant) | €3 | €5 | €8 |
| LTV (avg 4-month paid life) | €28 | €40 | €52 |
| LTV:CAC | 9× | 8× | 6.5× |
| Payback | < 1 month | < 1 month | < 1.5 months |
| Rule of 40 | −10% (−17% growth + 25% margin) | 25% (0% + 25%) | 50% (+10% + 40%) |
Unit economics on paper are healthy (typical for mature organic-traffic bootstrapped assets), but the headline growth signal is negative which collapses Rule-of-40 in the bear/base.
Cost structure (Estimated)
- Hosting / infra: €15–40k/yr (Cloudflare + small origin cluster; 4 TB/mo in 2011, likely 15–30 TB/mo today)
- Payment processing: 5–10% of revenue blended (SMS premium in CZ takes 30–40%, card 3–4%, crypto 1–2% — SMS mix is the drag)
- Content moderation: €30–60k/yr (small in-house team, volunteer mods)
- Marketing / paid acquisition: ≤€20k/yr (SEO-dominant, 92% direct traffic)
- Salaries (3–5 staff): €120–220k/yr (CZ market, IT/dev + ops)
- Legal / compliance / accounting: €15k/yr (small s.r.o.)
- Total opex estimate: €200–400k/yr → consistent with 25–40% EBITDA margin on €0.7–1.0M revenue
Sources
- Sbírka listin (Kurzy.cz): https://rejstrik-firem.kurzy.cz/26111161/scrumworks-sro/sbirka-listin/ (Verified — filings through 2020)
- ARES: https://ares.gov.cz/ekonomicke-subjekty-v-be/rest/ekonomicke-subjekty/26111161 (Verified)
- SEMrush amateri.cz: https://www.semrush.com/website/amateri.cz/overview/ (Verified traffic)
- SimilarWeb amateri.cz (Verified — lower estimate)
- recenzer.cz review 2025 (Verified — pricing, features, payment methods)
- Detail.cz (⚠ sample data — explicitly disclaimed by source, do not cite)
- Hlídač státu (Verified — no insolvency, no procurement, 291k CZK subsidies 2014–2015)
Open items for Phase 2
- Obtain management accounts 2021–2024 directly from seller
- Force explanation of the 5-year filing gap
- Read 2023 notarial deed NZ 394/2023 to identify corporate change
- Pull Register of Beneficial Owners entry
- 24-month payment-processor statements split by channel (SMS vs card vs crypto)
- Chargeback ratio by processor
- CZ tax reliability check (nespolehlivý plátce DPH register)
- Bank-statement review to verify revenue
- Cross-border licensing/royalty flows (any Deka/Tyche claim)
- Customer concentration: any single affiliate > 20% of traffic?