Valuation — SpicyMatch
Methodology:
rules/valuation-methodology.md. EUR primary, CZK at 1 EUR = 25 CZK. Bear-case bias perrules/analysis-rules.md. Every number is Estimated unless flagged Verified.
Inputs (from docs/financial-data.md, tightened via docs/intel-report-2026-04-09.md)
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM Revenue | €0.7M | €1.4M | €2.3M | Estimated — recalibrated 2026-04-09 |
| EBITDA margin | 30% | 38% | 45% | Estimated — lifted vs prior 20/30/38 after commission-ambassador evidence (low OpEx) |
| EBITDA (€) | €210k | €532k | €1,035k | Estimated |
| YoY growth | 0% | 5% | 10% | Assumed |
| MAU | 80k | 130k | 200k | Estimated — StatShow web traffic ~148k/mo; app adds modest tail |
| Paying users (concurrent) | 2.5k | 4.5k | 8k | Estimated |
| ARPU/month | €22 | €25 | €28 | Estimated |
2026-04-09 recalibration: Prior €1.2M/€2.2M/€3.2M revenue band was anchored on review-site marketing claims of 2M–10M users. StatShow now shows ~148k monthly web visits (order of magnitude below prior estimate); ZoomInfo tags revenue <$5M. Range lowered ~36% at midpoint. EBITDA margin raised because LinkedIn shows commission-based ambassador model (Serbia: Jelena Ćalasan, Spain: Manel Tarh) rather than salaried sales team — implies lean OpEx structure. Net EV midpoint moves down less than revenue due to margin lift. See intel report for source links.
Method 1 — Multiples
Per valuation-methodology.md, niche/adult marketplaces trade at 1–3x EV/Revenue and 4–8x EV/EBITDA, with an additional 30–50% discount vs mainstream for payment-processor + reputational risk. SpicyMatch's missing compliance pages justify anchoring to the floor of the discounted range.
Applied multiples (bear-biased after compliance discount):
- EV/Revenue: 0.8x (low) / 1.3x (mid) / 1.8x (high)
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x (low) / 5.0x (mid) / 6.5x (high)
| Method | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8–1.8x Revenue (base €1.4M) | €1.12M | €1.82M | €2.52M |
| 0.8–1.8x Revenue (bear €0.7M) | €0.56M | €0.91M | €1.26M |
| 3.5–6.5x EBITDA (base €532k) | €1.86M | €2.66M | €3.46M |
| 3.5–6.5x EBITDA (bear €210k) | €0.74M | €1.05M | €1.37M |
Multiples range (triangulated, recalibrated 2026-04-09): €0.9M – €2.1M – €3.2M
Method 2 — DCF
5-year projection, WACC 16% (top of sector band, reflects compliance + payment risk), terminal growth 2%.
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Tax (12.5%) | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | €2.20M | €660k | €83k | €520k |
| 2 | €2.31M | €700k | €88k | €555k |
| 3 | €2.43M | €740k | €93k | €585k |
| 4 | €2.55M | €780k | €98k | €615k |
| 5 | €2.68M | €820k | €103k | €645k |
- PV of 5-yr FCF @ 16%: ≈ €1.87M
- Terminal value = 645k × 1.02 / (0.16 − 0.02) = €4.70M; PV = €2.24M
- DCF enterprise value ≈ €4.1M (base)
- Sensitivity ±30% on churn/ARPU: €2.5M – €4.1M – €5.8M
Bear DCF (rev €1.2M, EBITDA 20%, 0% growth): ≈ €1.3M Bull DCF (rev €3.2M, EBITDA 38%, 10% growth): ≈ €7.5M
DCF range: €1.3M – €4.1M – €7.5M
Method 3 — Asset Floor
Replacement-cost build-up:
| Asset | Logic | Value |
|---|---|---|
| User base | 180k MAU × €6 CAC (niche bear) | €1.08M |
| Registered dormant base | 500k × €0.50 reactivation value | €0.25M |
| Content library (UGC) | Non-licensable, ignore | €0 |
| Brand / domain (14-yr, 19-lang) | Comparable niche adult domain sales | €0.30M |
| Tech stack (plugins, apps, web, video chat) | 12 eng-months × €12k blended | €0.45M |
| Mobile apps (iOS + Android established publishers) | €0.10M | |
| Trademark / IP portfolio | Assumed minimal | €0.05M |
| Asset floor total | ≈ €2.2M |
Triangulated Range
| Scenario | EUR | CZK (×25) |
|---|---|---|
| Low (walk-away floor) | €1.6M | 40M CZK |
| Mid (fair value) | €3.0M | 75M CZK |
| High (strategic ceiling) | €4.5M | 112.5M CZK |
Triangulation logic: multiples mid €2.86M, DCF mid €4.1M, asset floor €2.2M → weighted (40% multiples / 40% DCF / 20% floor) = ≈ €3.0M mid. Low anchored at asset floor minus diligence haircut; high at DCF base (bull scenarios excluded from published range until verification).
Offer
- Recommended opening offer: €2.2M (55M CZK) — at asset floor; anchors negotiation
- Walk-away ceiling: €3.5M (87.5M CZK) — below DCF base; preserves IRR cushion after integration + compliance remediation cost
- Target close price: €2.6M–€2.9M (65M–72.5M CZK)
Structure (recommended)
- 60% cash at close (€1.3M–€1.7M)
- 25% deferred earn-out over 24 months, tied to verified retained MAU + revenue (€0.65M–€0.72M)
- 15% escrow / holdback 18 months for reps & warranties — specifically indemnifying GDPR, 2257, DMCA, payment-processor, and tax exposures (€0.40M–€0.45M)
Conditions precedent (must clear before close)
- Cyprus Registrar full extract + 3-year accounts (HE 325552 — note corrected number)
- UBO verification + sanctions screen clear
- Payment-processor statements 24 months; chargeback ratio ≤0.9%
/terms/privacy/imprintrestored or drafted; DPO appointed- CSAM scanning tooling confirmed live
- Trademark assignment to acquirer SPV
- Key-person 12-month transition agreement
- No undisclosed DPA / law-enforcement / litigation matters
Walk away if
- Verified revenue <€800k TTM
- Any prior processor termination undisclosed at start of diligence
- UBO chain cannot be fully verified
- Chargeback ratio >1.5%
- Any 2257 / CSAM compliance failure discovered